Recently, academician Yang Yusheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences spoke at a meeting about the chaos of the development of China’s electric vehicle industry. Yang Yusheng is a pioneer of domestic battery research and a high-energy secondary battery-lithium-sulfur battery in China. In 2007, Academician Yang Yusheng developed the first high-energy lithium-sulfur secondary battery of 300Wh/kg in China, far higher than the existing lithium-ion battery (100Wh/kg). Yang Yusheng academician believes that the subsidy and price accounting of electric vehicles there are problems, which involve a lot of interests, but also lead to the existing high subsidy system for enterprises do not require, leading to many auto manufacturers to spend a large price to produce a product without a market, and the practicality of this product can still have problems, did not really play a role in promoting the growth of the industry.
Yang Yusheng academician believes that the current battery level determines the direction of the development of the 13th Five-Year Electric Vehicle Industry, rather than beyond the current battery level to pursue the so-called high-quality electric vehicles, electric vehicles should be developed with the battery level, and under the existing subsidy system, not only led to many enterprises that do not have electric vehicle research and development in order to subsidize the “Great Leap Forward”-style forced onthe horse, high and higher than the market cost of subsidies also lead to market driving capacity, not conducive to social inequality. To this end, Academician Yang Yusheng summarized five lessons from the development of China’s electric vehicle industry, and put forward his own three suggestions:
Five lessons learned:
First, the development route is wobbly, and not sure;
Second, the battery level is not used as the basis for the development of electric vehicles;
Third, it is high subsidies and no requirements. Subsidies for enterprises are very high but there is no requirement, you are willing to do what to do, so the marketization of electric vehicles has not played a role;
Fourth, out of the urban-rural differences between the actual. Focus on electric cars in big cities, and repeatedly crack down on small and low-speed electric vehicles;
V. Confusing the technical research stage or industrialization stage of electric vehicles.
Three recommendations:
First, the State Council to set a ceiling on the total amount of electric vehicle subsidies for the 13th Five-Year Plan, how much to make up for the first to calculate and then use, not to let the four ministries first use the calculation;
Second, to clarify the responsibilities of each automobile production enterprises, to achieve appropriate subsidies, responsibility indicators, excess awards, in order to punish and promote production;
Third, appropriate subsidies, continue to strengthen support for the development of electric vehicle technology innovation.
Here’s the full text:
Comrades, I conducted nuclear tests in Xinjiang for twenty-seven and a half years, so I am an expert in nuclear testing, and then because soon to 60 years old, let me go back to Beijing, back to Beijing on the selection of academicians, not to retire, so I do some battery work, in the electromagnetic field after more than ten years, on the exposure to electric vehicles, so from the electromagnetic point of view how to develop electric vehicles, so began to understand what is going on with electric vehicles.
In more than ten years of contact, more and more feel that electric vehicles are very important and very difficult, for our country some electric vehicle development related routes and related policies often pay attention to, but also issued some opinions, some views have also been supported by some comrades, there are a few people do not agree with my views, I think it is very natural. But practice is the only test of truth, and over the years, I feel that some of my views have stood the test. As for the subsidy policy, I was concerned about it about six or seven years ago, before and after the Shanghai World Expo. Two years before the World Expo, a 12M pure-power bus sold for 1.6 million, and less than a year later, it sold for 1.9 million. At the beginning of the year of the Expo, to Shanghai, it was 2.2 million, and three months before the opening of the Expo, it sold for 2.6 million.
From that time on I felt there were too many problems with the subsidies and prices of electric cars. Because a 12M bus needs about two tons of batteries, at the price at that time, the entire battery may be about 800,000. So why all of a sudden mention of 2.6 million, and an ordinary bus about 500,000, which the state subsidies 500,000, local subsidies 500,000, make up 1 million. Why make up so high, from this point on I began to pay attention to this problem. So I’ve been calling for a 12M electric bus to sell for 2.6 million, and I’ve said that at a lot of meetings, probably touching some people’s interest. But I always thought there was a problem with this subsidy. But I have to say a word today, we have a lot of officials and we have a good discussion with you.
But I attended many meetings on many occasions, and I often encountered a situation where I asked these officials to issue policies, asked them to speak first, after they finished, and then you said what he didn’t listen to, he didn’t want to hear, he didn’t want to hear, so I published some articles, published some words, and it didn’t work. Later I slowly figured it out, not only this, because now there are a lot of officials in the central four ministries, they all think they are experts, he is more expert than you, he is more than you think of the profound consideration of the comprehensive, you such a layman said, why should I listen to you? So throughout the whole year, I have always felt that the policy issues have been said a lot, we can turn over or dot a little Yang Yusheng or Yang Yusheng academician, there are a lot of reports.
But although the effect is not good, I think it is still necessary to speak, so this time Professor Gu invited me to attend the meeting, I said I attended. Let’s discuss how electric cars in our country should develop. So today I’m talking about “Reforming subsidy policy, developing electric vehicles”, and I actually feel that our national subsidy policy must be changed. I would like to make three questions. The first is a 15-year review of electric vehicles, the second is how to change the subsidy policy for electric vehicles, and the third is to use a good mature battery to develop a good 135 marketable electric vehicles. That’s the three questions I want to talk about.
A review of 15 years of electric vehicles
First, my overall assessment of the development of electric vehicles in our country over the past 15 years is mixed.
The so-called hi half is a key technology has made great progress, initially established a key components and vehicle industry base, by the end of 2015, China’s cumulative sales of new energy electric vehicles may reach more than 400,000 vehicles. Now that we’re talking about 497,000 units, I have doubts about that number, and I think the director might agree with me. Because the number of cards and the number of sales on the right, this in the first ten months of this year on the difference of 70,000 vehicles, in fact, this back of the fraud make up a lot of false numbers in it, so I said can not always take this thing relish. But at least our electric cars are developing faster and we’ve tried a lot of running patterns, but we should also see problems, so I say it’s a mixed blessing. Some people don’t agree with my half-open assessment, I don’t think that’s the main problem. The first problem is the cost of tens of billions of dollars in central subsidies, coupled with a comparable amount of local government subsidies, which have been ineffective in driving the electric car market.
The second is that many pure electric buses did not go down, could have exercised 150 km or 200 km, soon became 80 km or 50 km, and some simply can not walk, so these 497,000 cars inside, how many future decline, How many “lying nest”, I think it is still worth counting, and this phenomenon is spreading, I think this spread problem, last year’s sudden growth, the years of storage of unqualified batteries also sold out, these batteries sold, not only not long life, but also very dangerous. So this “lying nest” and the problem of not aging will continue to spread, and the second set of batteries are not installed. The third problem is that many people have obtained preferential policies and used the trams as fuel cars and sold their batteries, so this is also a deception. The fourth is that hundreds of innately inadequate fuel cell electric vehicles in Beijing and Shanghai are now dormant, and some have modified lithium-ion batteries, which actually reduces the price because the price of subsidies is different.
Second, the lessons of the 15 years since the development of electric vehicles.
I have a long article on this issue, and I would like to say a brief outline here. The first is that the development path is wobbly and undecided, which is the first lesson. In summary, the 15-year, three-year plan changed three priorities, with fuel cell electric vehicles as the first priority during the 15-year period, followed by President Bush, who saw it as the ultimate light energy source. To the 11th Five-Year Plan, hybrid electric cars become the focus of support of the car, some companies in Japan want to cause Japanese technology, and even bought Japan back assembly, when Prius is more mature, and later found that many of us are opposed to hybrid vehicles, because this is actually followed by the Japanese, Japan has a patent, when Toyota’s patent is more than a hundred, this hybrid car sealed dead, and then it is difficult to do a good job of the core of the new components of our country’s mechanical and electrical processing. So feel that we should do our own electric car. So to the 12th Five-Year, pure electric as the focus. Because the focus of this three-five-year plan swings there. The second lesson is not to use the battery level as the basis for the development of electric vehicles, this problem I also see, just said That Price, he has now sold 8 million vehicles, he uses the nickel hydride battery ratio of energy is 50 watts per kilogram, but because he has the core technology of emerging gear plus important technology is electronic control, the control is done very well.
So through these two technologies, the fuel power and electrical power have done a perfect fit. So this car can save fuel to 35% to 40%, so not in the battery how much, there is this nickel hydride battery to use it well, give full play to the role of the battery, but our country is not, so here I mainly talk about car comrades, but at that time lithium-ion battery reached 80 watts per kilogram, nearly double the nickel hydride battery, this battery is not good, but partial to what pure electric, with such a battery to engage in pure electric, and finally will encounter a series of problems. So the absence of battery levels as the basis for the development of electric vehicles is actually divorced from our most fundamental design. The third is high subsidies and no requirements. Subsidies to companies are high but there is no requirement for what you are willing to do, so it doesn’t work for the marketization of electric vehicles. Now the subsidy policy is not clear, immediately this car will not trade, the car factory now does not accept orders, this is not the most recent, has happened twice, this is the third time, not according to the market, look at the subsidy, look at the policy, decide how to do, this thing is very bad.
The fourth problem is to move away from the reality of the big difference between urban and rural areas. Focusing on electric cars in big cities and repeatedly cracking down on small, low-speed electric vehicles is a big lesson for us. The fifth is to confuse the technical research stage or industrialization stage of electric vehicles, research and industrialization is related to the two stages, but there are differences between, is two different stages, our Ministry of Science and Technology said three vertical and three horizontal, three vertical just said three five-year plan for three key points. I give an example of an image, like playing the Rubik’s Cube, three constantly turn there, in fact, it can turn, but the Ministry of Science and Technology for industrialization is very active, in fact, the Ministry of Science and Technology is actively involved in industrialization, he put the research phase of the three vertical to the industrialization inside, so lead to things mess. The sixth lesson is not enthusiastic about new things, reflect ingenuity, management level can not keep up with the objective situation development, our corresponding policy measures do not match, micro-cars in several provinces within the development so fast, did not form the corresponding policy supporting regulations, such a mini-car does not require a license plate, do not require the driver to test traffic rules, in this case there have been some car accidents, hit, he hit people, and finally all down to a low-speed electric vehicle unsafe, the more the more the reason, the more not the truth.